Indeed Europe is not at any war,
nonetheless, the relationship Brexit Britain and its longstanding friend and
adversary enter into in 2017 will go a long way to define the European
continent.
The forth-coming French election
in spring this year is seen to a tough battle between the far right’s Marine Le
Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the liberal centrist. According to analysts, there
appears to be two different opinions on what the expected result will meant to
Britain.
One of such opinion is that,
Brexit could help boost Ms Le Pen's chances of winning.
"Brexit was the first real
blow to the old order," Ms Le Pen recently said, adding: "We are here
to bear witness to the end of one world and the birth of another."
Similarly, Donald Trump’s victory
at the presidential poll is also a bolster to her candidature, which is based
on similar issues, such as globalisation and immigration as part of a broader
drive of change.
According to Ms Le Pen, France is
not stepping out on its own, but rather that "the people are waking - the
tide of history has turned". Thus has also promised the French people that
she will call for a referendum that will decide France’s membership of the EU
tagged Frexit.
Therefore, if she wins and keep
to her promise, a Le Pen France could be good for Brexit Britain.
Of which if France exits the
union, analysts predicts could bring the EU to an abrupt end, and will give
Britain the opportunity to seek bi-lateral trade deals and diplomatic ties with
individual states instead of the other 27 member states.
However, would an unstable,
disintegrating EU be good for Britain? In the short-term it would lead to
economic turmoil.
It's no surprise that Theresa May
has insisted she wants a strong Europe, despite Brexit.
On the other hand, what if the
polls are right and the internationalist, liberal, EU-supporting Mr Macron
wins?
Macron stated during the week
that UK’s exit from the EU is a major opportunity for France to take its
rightful place.
"I was very happy to see
that some academics and researchers in the UK because of Brexit are considering
coming to France to work," he said.
"It will be part of my
programme to be attractive for these kinds of people.
"I want banks, talents, researchers,
academics and so on."
He also went further to hint at
renegotiating an arrangement between France and the UK that allows immigration
checks before passengers’ board cross-Channel ferries or trains.
If elected, a President Macron,
wanting to protect the EU and to exploit Brexit, could prove a much tougher
negotiator.
Whether it is Mr Macron, Ms Le
Pen or even Francois Fillon, what is clear is that the UK's vote to leave the
EU is helping to shape France's election and Brexit will be shaped by whoever
wins.
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