Monday, 20 February 2017

Analysts warn that Scotland could become a third world country if it gains independence from the UK

Scottish second Independence Referendum

A business analyst have issued a strong warning to Scotland to be careful otherwise, it may become a “third world country” within a space thirty years if Nicola Sturgeon’s call for Scottish independence continues its “addiction” to public expenditure.

According to the warning issued by Douglas McWilliams, president of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), it was stated that the Scottish people could later on find themselves facing Greek-style austerity measures trying to plug a £19bn black hole if it successfully break away from the United Kingdom.

Presently, report has it that Greece is about facing another financial challenges, as citizens are withdrawing over £2bn in just few weeks due to the fear that the Greek government will default on more debt payments that may cause them to exit the Eurozone.

According to CEBR’s forecast the gap between Scotland’s revenue accrued from taxes and government expenditure will become "unsustainable" to about 9.4 per cent of GDP by next financial year - more than three times the rest of the UK as a whole.

If Scotland were independent now, McWilliams said, that figure would be about 12 per cent of GDP.

Speaking to the Sunday Times he said: "The only practical option would be to cut public spending.

"Because of the negative Keynesian multiplier effects, there would need to be cuts of around 15 per cent of GDP.

"That's roughly on the scale of what has happened in Greece, which has led to a fall in GDP of a quarter."

Saying that Scotland's obsession to "tax and spend" would put the nation on course to becoming a third world country in three decades.

First Minister Ms Sturgeon has said a second referendum on independence is "highly likely", after Scotland voted 62 per cent to 38 per cent to stay in the EU during the Brexit vote.

Also, lobby group Business for Scotland, which campaigned for independence in the first Scottish referendum of 2014, has anticipated the SNP leader will call the vote within a few weeks.

According to the group's website Scotland’s exports almost £100bn worth of goods across the world, and would provide "the foundation for a wealthy independent country".

Despite North Sea oil prices tumbling, Business for Scotland maintains revenues will rise again by next year.

A report on the website blames an "artificially high pound" which prevented Scotland exporting to countries with a weaker currency.


It adds: "An independent Scotland, with its own currency, would have enjoyed the opportunity to increase exports to countries outside the United Kingdom, allowing Scotland to achieve its full exporting potential."

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